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Growth Dragons Weekly: China GDP Up 5.2%, Baidu-Uber Robotaxis, GDS Debuts DC REIT, Pop Mart Profits to Jump 350%, WuXi AppTec Earnings Set to Double
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Growth Dragons Weekly: China GDP Up 5.2%, Baidu-Uber Robotaxis, GDS Debuts DC REIT, Pop Mart Profits to Jump 350%, WuXi AppTec Earnings Set to Double

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Alvin Chow
Jul 19, 2025
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Growth Dragons
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Growth Dragons Weekly: China GDP Up 5.2%, Baidu-Uber Robotaxis, GDS Debuts DC REIT, Pop Mart Profits to Jump 350%, WuXi AppTec Earnings Set to Double
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What happened in China this week:

  1. China Q2 2025 Grew 5.2%: What’s Good, What’s Worrying

  2. Baidu and Uber Join Forces to Launch Apollo Go Robotaxis Globally

  3. Pop Mart Expects To Triple Profit in H1 2025 — Labubu Mania Still Going Strong

  4. WuXi AppTec Projects 106% Profit Surge on 21% Revenue Growth

  5. GDS Launches RMB 2 Billion Data Center REIT in China


#1 China Q2 2025 Grew 5.2%: What’s Good, What’s Worrying

China’s economy expanded by 5.2% year-on-year in Q2 2025, slightly beating economists’ expectations of 5.17%. While this keeps the country broadly on track to hit its full-year growth target of around 5%, it also marked a slowdown from Q1’s 5.4% pace. First-half growth now stands at 5.3%. However, the headline figure papers over a more fragile recovery beneath the surface, as deeper data reveals persistent weakness in domestic demand, investment, and the struggling property sector.

Retail Sales & Consumer Confidence

Retail sales rose 4.8% YoY in June, slowing from 6.4% in May.

Much of the earlier boost was driven by short-term government incentives, such as a 300 billion yuan (US$41.8 billion) trade-in scheme for vehicles and appliances. One clear beneficiary has been ATRenew, China’s largest pre-owned electronics platform, which saw a 17% YTD growth.

But beneath the surface, deeper structural issues persist: stagnant incomes, rising job insecurity, and tighter access to credit continue to erode long-term consumer confidence.

Property Sector: Still Falling

Real estate investment plunged 11.2% YoY in H1—the steepest drop since early 2020.
Prices continued falling across all city tiers, despite local-level easing. The drag comes from a toxic mix of:

  • Oversupply in lower-tier cities

  • Weakening demand

  • Lingering concerns about developers’ financial health

Investment & Industrial Activity: Confidence Still Lacking

  • Fixed-asset investment grew 2.8% in H1, down from 3.7% in Jan–May.

  • Private sector investment fell 0.6%, reflecting weak business sentiment.

  • Industrial production rose 6.8% in June, the fastest this quarter, but…

  • Capacity utilization fell to 74%—the second-lowest Q2 reading since 2013.

This shows that while factories are running, much of their capacity remains idle.

Exports: Bright Spot with Caveats

Exports rose 5.9% in H1 and 5.8% in June. Gains were supported by:

  • Improved U.S.-China trade ties

  • Front-loading ahead of tariff expirations

  • Robust demand from Southeast Asia and Europe

But dark clouds loom: U.S. tariffs still exceed 40%, global demand is expected to soften, and risks to indirect export routes remain high.

Shifting Growth Engines: Consumption Rising—Barely

The National Bureau of Statistics noted that consumption contributed 52% to GDP growth in H1, up from 31.2% from exports. This tilt toward domestic demand is a step in the right direction, but it remains fragile given continued pressure on household income and job stability.

Auto Sector: Booming Volumes, Crumbling Margins

Nowhere is China’s uneven recovery more apparent than in the auto industry—especially new energy vehicles (NEVs).

Shipments rose 12.6% in the first five months of 2025, but retail sales value actually fell 1.9% YoY. Why? Prices have likely dropped 10% or more.

  • Customs data shows car export volume rose 15.2%, while value grew only 5.3%.

  • The fall in prices reflects tech improvements, intense price wars, and overcapacity.

And financial stress is building fast.

  • From 2019 to 2024, revenue for eight major listed automakers rose 52%, but:

    • Accounts payable jumped 126%

    • Inventory surged 152%

Case in point: BYD’s revenue skyrocketed 508%, but payables climbed 973% and inventory rose 354%.

Component suppliers are increasingly strained. The mismatch between revenue and liabilities points to growing vulnerabilities: falling prices, delayed payments, and stockpiles of unsold vehicles. While government support has helped cushion the impact so far, the risks are rising.

Bottom Line

China’s economy delivered solid top-line growth in H1 2025, bolstered by exports and early stimulus. A slow pivot toward consumption-led growth is a welcome sign. But beneath the surface, the recovery remains unbalanced and brittle—dragged down by weak private investment, a still-unresolved property slump, and rising financial strain in key sectors like autos.

With large-scale stimulus unlikely, Beijing may lean on targeted, incremental policy support to steer the economy through the second half. We believe China is on track to meet its 5% growth target for 2025, but expecting a significant upside surprise may be unrealistic.

#2 Baidu and Uber Join Forces to Launch Apollo Go Robotaxis Globally

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